The regulator ruled that an episode of The Montel Williams Show on ITV2 on 11 February breached rules on offensive material and potentially harming viewers by suggesting psychics could give life-changing advice.

I would suspect that Sylvia’s bad advice was both life-changing for the Hornbeck family, as well as harmful. Imagine if some quack told you that your son had been murdered. If you were to believe that “prediction” and then your son were to be found, what would you do to minimize your cognitive dissonance? Would you deny the living, breathing fact that you child was still alive, or would you perhaps question the validity of your favorite psychic’s claims that he or she had super powers?

In Britain, apparently, you can’t go around and make silly claims like that. At least, not without having a regulator call you on it. See, we could learn something from our British cousins!

WHO CARES IF SHE IS FAKE?! WHAT HARM IS SHE DOING?!?!?!?!

I almost let this slide, but couldn’t do that in good conscience.

You tell me:

Most famously, Sylvia tells Shawn Hornbeck’s parents that their child had been murdered. Oops, he’s alive and well. No harm there, right?

Also, in the wake of the Sago Mine disaster in West Virginia, Sylvia mistakenly claimed, on camera, that she knew the miners would be found alive. Oops again, they were really dead. Good thing there’s no harm in telling the dead miner’s families they would all be OK, right?

Also, and this is the kicker for me. She’s created her own religion corporation. I’m not a religious person by any stretch of the imagination, but I’d say it would take some astronomically-scaled balls to create a new religion. Her “Society of Novus Spiritus” is supposed to be based on Gnostic Christian teachings, which are, by most Christian definitions, heresy at the least. Couple that with the fact that all satellite Novus churches pay their “Mother church” a 10% cut of all donations they receive, and they require all their study groups to BUY their materials from Sylvia Brown Corp and the Novus Society. No harm asking people to pay for that spiritual bliss, right?

By the way, don’t take my word for it. Read the Novus Conditions of Acceptance Agreement and Required Study Materials pages yourself. Also, before you decide to join, make sure you sign that “Hold Harmless” agreement, which is essentially a blanket liability waiver in which you give up your right to hold any Novus Spiritus employee responsible for any and all liabilities or damages that could occur as a result of taking their special brand of kookiness seriously.

Yes folks, the answer to the question, “What’s the harm?” is this – it doesn’t matter because with Sylvia Brown, you have to both suspend reasonable disbelief as well as waive any and all liability anyway.

You’re surrounded by Ghost Whisperers, Allison DuBuois, and freaky kids seeing dead people, so it’s only (super)natural to ask yourself, “Hey, could I be psychic?”

Take our little test and find out if you have a hidden psychic ability. Have any of these things ever happened to you?

1. You’ve lost your keys more than once, and every time you find them in the last place you look.
2. You have ever asked yourself, “Who could that be?”, or bother to look at Caller ID when the phone rings.
3. You suspect people are talking about you behind you back, but you don’t know who, nor what they’re saying.
4. You advertise your “Amazing Psychic Reading” business rather than calling your future customers before they call you.
5. You hear ghostly voices that command you to do horrible things to your coworkers with a teaspoon full of sugar and a crowbar, but an aluminum foil hat makes the voices shut the hell up.
6. You had a dream about the sun coming up and then it happened almost exactly as you dreamed it would.
7. You had a shiver run down your spine when you picked up the phone right before it rang. As it turns out, you pick up the phone a lot, and there’s often just a dial tone waiting on the other side.
8. You have ever been surprised by the ending of an episode of Law and Order. (For the more geriatric readers – if Murder She Wrote ever stumped you.)
9. You flipped a coin over and over and once got heads five times in a row.
10. You ever got less than 100% on a multiple choice test.
11. You think that if Sylvia Browne can do it, you can too, all the while forgetting that Sylvia is a fake.
12. You started out writing a “Top 10 List” and wound up with 12 items instead.

If you answer yes to any of the above, sorry, you’re a clod like the rest of us. You have no psychic ability at all. If you’re in this camp, you can proudly use this in your blog to display your normalcy.

If you answered yes to all of them, you’re just like Sylvia Browne: You still have no psychic ability, but are instead quite the freaky freaky weirdo. Here’s your badge:

As I mentioned earlier, I’ll be using the following criteria to analyze her predictions:

1. We’ll only score predictions that are “specific enough” to score.
2. We’ll distinguish positive from negative predictions
3. We’ll only count predictions for which we’re pretty certain there was no documented foreknowledge.
4. We will split compound predictions into individual predictions.
5. We will disallow predictions of common or regularly occurring events
6. We will not score predictions that cannot yet be validated (for example, if Sylvia predicts something for 2009 or later).

As for scoring, we’ll simply assign each prediction that can be scored into one of 4 possible categories:

A Hit occurs when a positively predicted event actually occurs. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to get married and they do.

A False Alarm occurs when a predicted event does not occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to get married and they don’t actually get married. (This is similar to “crying wolf”).

A Miss occurs when an event that is predicted not to occur actually does occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to not get married and they do.

A Correct Rejection occurs when an event that is predicted not to occur actually does not occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to not get married and they don’t actually get married.

Within this framework, the psychic can be correct by getting a Hit or by getting a Correct Rejection. Misses and False Alarms are considered errors.

We will list the category each prediction below falls into, and we will provide a description of why we scored it this way. At the end, we will tally up the results.

Prediction Sources:

We’ve compiled the list of predictions below from the following sources:
1. http://www.mothering.com/discussions/showthread.php?t=583405
2. http://thirtysecondstomars.emiforums.com/index.php?showtopic=303681
3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJkNljY7nSM
4. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqdJNrkUv8c&feature=related

Scoring The Predictions:

TomKat will have a baby boy, stay together for 2 more years, and divorce. He will move on to some other chick, Sylvia doesnt like him because she had PPD.

This is actually 4 predictions – 1) they will have a baby boy, 2) they will stay together for 2 more years, 3) they will then divorce, and 4) Tom will move on to some other chick. Since we’re only interested in the predictions for 2007, the “2 more years” prediction cannot be confirmed until the end of 2008. Also, since the “divorce” prediction is dependant on the “2 more years prediction” (meaning, you don’t stay together after divorcing), we’re down to 2 predictions for 2007.

Prediction 1) they will have a baby boy. False Alarm. – TomKat didn’t have a baby boy in 2007

Prediction 4) Tom will move on to some other chick. False Alarm. Tom did not move on to some other chick.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 0/0/2/0

Brad and Angelina wont make it either, they will split. She thinks Angelina is pretty ridiculous for saying she wanted to sit down with Jen, as if any woman would want to talk to the woman who ran off with their husband.

False Alarm: As of 1/1/2008 – Brad and Angelina have made it just fine.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 0/0/3/0

Marc Anthony and J Lo will never have a baby and will break up. J Lo cant have a baby apparently, for some reason, physically or else she just doesn’t really want one.

This is another set of 3 predictions – 1) Mark Anthony and J Lo will never have a baby, 2) they will break up, 3) and that J Lo either cannot or will not have a child.

Prediction 1) Mark Anthony and J Lo will never have a baby (for 2007). While Sylvia predicted they will never have a baby, we can give her a hit for correctly predicting that the couple would not have a baby in 2007.

Prediction 2) they will break up (in 2007). False Alarm since Marc Anthony and J Lo didn’t break up in 2007.

Prediction 3) that J Lo either cannot have a child. False Alarm: It’s very apparent that J Lo is both capable of becoming pregnant and intends to have their first baby sometime in 2008.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/5/0

Nicole Richie will end up in the hospital for so much self abuse.

N/A due to reasonable foreknowledge. People magazine reported
that Nicole was hospitalized briefly in March, 2007 for dehydration. While it remains possible that psychic powers provided Sylvia insight into this prediction, it’s more likely that she read this October 2006 People Magazine article which provided reasonable foreknowledge of an upcoming hospitalization:

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/5/0

Martha Stewart’s show will be canceled.

False Alarm: Just plain wrong on this one.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/6/0

Mel Gibson will just kind of go away.

False Alarm. Sylvia predicted that Mel wouldn’t do much following Apocolypto. Interestingly, Mel’s fall from grace was well documented in 2006 as was his declaration that he was quitting his acting career, so her guess that he wouldn’t do much was understandable. And while predicting the past isn’t evidence of a superpower, Sylvia misses here simply on account respectable amount of philanthropic work Mel did through 2007 (here and here).

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/7/0

Tom Hanks will win some Excellence Award.

False Alarm: This is about as vague as you can get with a prediction, but Sylvia still managed to miss this one. In this case, it’s rather simple to check IMDB.com to see what awards Tom Hanks was up for in 2007. Turns out he was nominated for a people’s choice award for Favorite Male Movie Star, but he lost to Johnny Depp.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/8/0

Liz Taylor is dying, her *life force* is flickering, she is giving up.

N/A – this is not specific enough to score.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/8/0

Jen Aniston will marry a producer/director type.

False Alarm: Jen Aniston is still single.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/9/0

Some rapper is going to blow up, but I don’t remember his name.

N/A. This is too vague to be counted one way or the other.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/9/0

8 years and we will have a black president.

N/A. Again – there’s no way to validate this until after 8 years have passed.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/9/0

Polio and Whooping cough are making big comebacks because of crazy people who think vaccines are not good for you and contribute to autism.

There are 2 predictions here: 1) That Polio is making a big comeback in 2007 and that 2) Whooping Cough would make a similar “big comeback” in 2007. In both cases, Sylvia raises more false alarms.

Prediction 1) That Polio is making a big comeback in 2007. False Alarm: It turns out that, while not completely eradicated, there were only 857 cases of Polio around the world in 2007 (down from over 300,000 in 1988 when eradication efforts began).

Prediction 2) Whooping Cough would make a similar “big comeback” in 2007. False Alarm: While there have been small outbreaks of whooping cough, the number of cases in 2007 was lower than the number in 2006. In neither the case of polio nor the case of Whooping Cough, can we credit Sylvia with correctly predicting a “big comeback”.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/11/0

Bush will bring the troops home.

False Alarm. Bush sent more troops into Iraq as part of his “surge” strategy.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/12/0

More states will approve gay marriage, not just civil unions.

False Alarm. No states approved same sex marriages in 2007. One bill was passed the New York assembly, but was not voted on. Also, between August 30 and 31, about 20 gay couples were married in Iowa during the brief time in which a judge there ruled the state law forbidding same-sex marriages was unconstitutional. On the day after issuing the ruling, the same judge overturned himself and the law was reinstated.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/13/0

FEMA will be investigated, people will go to jail for stealing.

This is actually two predictions: 1) FEMA will be investigated, and 2) FEMA employees will be jailed for theft.

Prediction 1) On FEMA investigations in 2007. N/A due to foreknowledge. It turns out that it was widely announced in late 2006 that FEMA would be the target of several investigations during the upcoming year, just as it was announced in 2007 that there would be additional investigations in FY 2008.

Prediction 2) On FEMA employees being jailed for theft. False Alarm: Thus far, we have not uncovered any news reports of FEMA officials being jailed for any reason in 2007. We’ll count this as a false alarm for now, unless someone can send us a credible report of one occurring.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/14/0

Major drug bust in Eastern port in June, then another big one on west coast.

N/A: This is not specific enough to test. This sounds like a relatively specific event, but it isn’t. A Google search containing the terms, “June 2007 major drug busts Eastern US” turn up over 237,000 different items. Of these, we can take our pick of the major busts in Eastern ports, since there were several in NJ, VA, FL, and NY. The same issue applies for the West Coast. Predicting something that occurs on a regular basis is not really a prediction. Even so, we won’t count this against her.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/14/0

Bomb parts will come in through the ports too, but NO major terrorist attacks here, although she is worried about England and France.

Again – multiple vague predictions.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/14/0

Economy will bounce back, although stock market is a real rollercoaster.

False Alarm: The US economy didn’t “bounce back” in 2007. With soaring oil prices, the mortgage crisis, and a weak dollar, the consensus is that a sharp slowdown has begun in the economy, and even though there is evidence of economic resilience, there are plenty of economists who are using the other R word: recession.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/15/0

Property is the best investment now, buy now, because its going down but will go back up next year

False Alarm. Two words: Mortgage Crisis.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/16/0

New drugs for HIV, AIDS, Hep C that really help patients

Once again – there are several predictions here:

Prediction 1) New Drugs for HIV AIDS patients? N/A. I thought this might be a hit, since the FDA approved Raltegravir in October, 2007. It was widely known, however, that Merck Pharmaceutical was awarded a patent for this class of drug in October, 1996, and the studies that were used to support FDA approval were published in 2003. Since there was foreknowledge available when Sylvia made this prediction, the best we can say is this is a push.

Prediction 2) Was a new Drug for Hep C patients announced in 2007? False Alarm: A Google news search for “hepatitis C drug approval” returned only 220 results, and none of these appeared to be announcements of new drug approvals for Hep C in 2007.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/17/0

East coast will have one of the mildest winters you have seen (this current winter).

False Alarm: Even though the NOAA predicted a mild winter on Nov 16, 2006, it turns out that the overall temperature for winter 2007 was about average. It turns out that December and the first half of January were indeed very mild, but then there were some bone-chilling cold days in the East as winter storms moved in.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/18/0

West Coast will still be cold/rainy like it is now.

Hit: Winter 2007 was cold and rainy for much of the west (same link above).

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Depression will be linked to diet.

N/A due to foreknowledge. Depression was first linked to diet at least 2000 years ago by the Roman physician Galen, who theorized that the foods we ate affected the balance of “animal spirits” in the brain and caused mania or melancholia. Predicting what’s been known for thousands of years really a prediction.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Processing is causing a lot of illnesses?

N/A due to lack of specificity. I won’t even pretend to know what this means.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

There will be an amino acid found that will put HIV into remission

How cool is this? There was news that amino acid supplements could help put HIV into remission. Of course, this was back in 1999. N/A due to foreknowledge.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Some glaciers will be breaking up at rapid speed,

N/A due to foreknowledge: this has been widely reported since 1998.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

We are in a “polar tilt”

N/A due to lack of specificity.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Tornados in odd places, texas, arkansas, all over,

N/A: predicting common events. Texas and Arkansas are not really odd places for tornado activity. These two states are part of what’s commonly called “Tornado Alley”.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

More volcanoes everywhere erupting, Hawaii.

N/A: predicting common events. Hawaii’s Kilauea has been erupting continuously since 1983. In addition, there are many volcanic eruptions every year around the world.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Flooding in the south.

False Alarm: This is a pretty safe prediction, but Sylvia still managed to raise a false alarm for 2007 instead. The real southern story was one of catastrophic drought, not flooding.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/19/0

earthquakes and tsunamis.

N/A: Not specific enough to analyze.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/19/0

Some crops will fail because of drought at end of the year and you wont even be able to afford corn and other produce.

Again – 2 different – though related – predictions: 1) Crop failures due to drought at the end of 2007, and 2) “you won’t be able to afford corn and other produce” because of the drought.

Prediction 1) Crop failures due to drought at the end of 2007. False Alarm: A Google news search of “2007 USA “Crop Failure” returns only 27 results, of which none are related to significant late season, drought-induced crop failures.

Prediction 2) “you won’t be able to afford corn and other produce” because of the drought. False Alarm: While produce prices have risen, people are still able to afford produce. In addition, the main cause for increased produce prices is not a drought, but rather the increase in energy prices which drive up the cost to farm, process, store, and transport produce.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/21/0

Really hard winter next year.

N/A: Not specific enough to analyze, and we’ll have to wait and see anyway.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/21/0

More spirituality next year, bad press for Evangelicals, they are misusing $, buying lots of things for themselves

N/A: Not specific enough to analyze.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/21/0

Tsunami in New York, she has been worried about this for years, and its coming.

False Alarm: There was no Tsunami in New York in 2007.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Cure for insulin dependent diabetes end of next year, major breakthroughs happening

N/A – We’ll have to wait until 2009 to see.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Democrat in office next time

N/A – Not specific enough, and we’ll have to wait anyway.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Worried about trucks and trains for terrorism worldwide, not planes

N/A – Not specific enough to analyze.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Find missing amino in autism kids that can be reversed

N/A – Reasonable Foreknowledge. Researchers have been looking at the links between amino acid imbalances and autism since the 1980’s (also here).

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Gas prices will go down in feb

False Alarm: On 1/22/2008 The AAA displayed this graph of national average gas prices for the previous 12 months. Note the uniform average increase in gas prices during Feb 2007:

( Source: here )

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/23/0

Statistical Analysis:

Hit Rate = Hits/(Hits + Misses) = 2/(2+0) = 2/2 = 100%
False Alarm Rate = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms) = 23/(2+23) = 23/25 = 92%

Discussion:

Sylvia Browne’s thicker brow-ridged supporters might be encouraged by the 100% hit rate statistic, but the smarter ones will realize that’s actually an artifact of having such a few number of accurate predictions coupled with self-selecting the events she predicted. If you give yourself a list of things to predict, then there’s no way you can get more than zero misses (or less than 100% hits, even if you hit something by chance). In 2006, Sylvia actually failed to predict every major story of 2007: The Virginia Tech massacre, the mortgage crisis, the surge in Iraq, Barry Bonds, Brittany Spears’ meltdown, OJ’s rearrest, etc. (See more stuff Sylvia Browne never predicted). Even though she declined to predict what turned out to be the most important events of 2007, none of these can actually be counted as misses, since she never said anything about them. We can only count a miss if Sylvia predicts something isn’t going to happen, and it actually does. For example – if she predicted that there would not be a massacre at Virginia Tech in 2007, and there was, then we could count that as a miss. Since Sylvia picks the events that she’ll make predictions about, then there is virtually no chance that she’ll ever miss a prediction, and any hits she gets will lead to a 100% hit rate.

In addition to the very small number of actual hits (2 of 25 predicted events), there is a reasonably large number of “predictions” that had to be rejected due to vagueness, potential foreknowledge, or were predictions of common events (like volcanic activity in Hawaii) or future events that cannot yet be validated (in 8 years we’ll have a black president). I counted 23 non-predictions that had to be rejected from this set. While these didn’t count for her or against her, but I find it interesting that nearly half of the items she “predicts” are not measurable in any way.

Finally, and most telling is the 92% False Alarm rate – which dominates the predictions that she made for 2007 as it did for her 2006 predictions. False alarms are akin to crying wolf – she predicts that there will be a Tsunami in New York, or that Gas Prices will fall in February, and none of these events come to pass. Out of 25 predictions that she made for 2007, 23 of them were false alarms. This is very close to the 93.5% false alarm rate that Sylvia ran last year, so at least she’s consistent.

Consistently crying wolf.

I’ve been on a bit of a jag recently, looking at what I consider to be silly, spooky, and outright loony predictions made by self-proclaimed psychics. Also, I have recently tried my hand at scoring the accuracy of some of these, with somewhat mixed results. Obviously, there is the potential to allow bias to influence one’s tests as well as one’s data selection, and since I freely admit that I’m skeptical of the claims of psychic powers, I want to minimize the likelihood of bias and errors. To that end I’ve decided to put together a simple procedure for scoring psychic predictions.

This proposal offers guidelines in two major areas:

1. What data should be considered valid when one is assessing the accuracy or validity of predictions made by persons purporting to have psychic ability?
2. What statistics are important with respect to the data sets in question, and how to calculate them?

There are several benefits of developing such guidelines. First and foremost, these will allow us to treat diverse sets of predictions in a consistent manner. Second, by applying consistent analysis techniques, this effort will reduce the likelihood of biased interpretations. Third, this effort is built upon a well established theoretical framework – Signal Detection Theory.

Guideline 1: What data should be considered valid when assessing psychic predictions?

I believe that data from psychic predictions should only be subject to statistical analysis if the following conditions are met:

1. There must be an actual prediction that is “specific enough” to test. No statements will be accepted that do not specify enough context surrounding the predicted event in order to determine if the event actually did or did not occur as predicted. A psychic prediction that is “specific enough to test” can be operationally defined as one in which at least three of the “Wh” questions (Who, What, Where, Why, When) are specified, one of which must be some time frame (When) in the future.

   Examples of non-predictions:

   1. Celebrity X will get married. (Only specifies who and what, and does not specify when).
   2. Next Fall, it will be very warm. (Specifies when, but not where – and actually doesn’t specify what. “Very warm” isn’t specific.)
2. We will distinguish positive from negative predictions: Valid prediction can be either positive or negative. A positive prediction is defined as a prediction that a certain event will occur. A negative prediction is defined as a prediction that a certain event will not occur. In either case, however, the prediction is specific enough to test as outlined above.
3. There must be no advanced knowledge of the predicted event: This means that we will discard predictions of events that occur prior to the publication of the prediction, as well as predictions of events that are scheduled to occur and the schedule is available prior to the prediction. Predictions about events that are likely to occur will be considered as long as there is not any a verifiable published report that shows that the event is scheduled or planned.
4. No Compound Predictions: A compound prediction is simply more than one prediction in a single statement. If a psychic says X will occur and that Y will also occur, this will be treated as two distinct predictions, assuming the other prediction guidelines have been met.

Guideline 2: Important statistics, and how to calculate them

The conceptual framework that forms the basis of this guideline is known as Signal Detection Theory, which is described in Wikipedia as follows:

Signal detection theory (SDT) is used when psychologists want to measure the way we make decisions under conditions of uncertainty, such as how we would perceive distances in foggy conditions. SDT assumes that the decision maker is not a passive receiver of information, but an active decision-maker who makes difficult perceptual judgments under conditions of uncertainty.

SDT can be directly applied to situations in which skilled observers need to be able to discriminate target signals from background noise. For example, SDT has been applied to the accuracy of radar operators, medical diagnosis, psychology and neuropsychology. In addition to these, I believe psychic predictions can also be analyzed using SDT, since psychics are not supposed to be passive observers, but are rather active decision makers that claim to use their abilities to make difficult judgments concerning future events under conditions of uncertainty.

Applying SDT to psychic predictions is rather simple:

1. Each valid prediction is assigned to one of four categories based on the following table:
   

   	Event Occurred	Event Did Not Occur
   Event Predicted To Occur	Hit	False Alarm
   Event Predicted To Not Occur	Miss	Correct Rejection

   A Hit occurs when a positively predicted event actually occurs. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to get married and they do.

   A False Alarm occurs when a predicted event does not occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to get married and they don’t actually get married. (This is similar to “crying wolf”).

   A Miss occurs when an event that is predicted not to occur actually does occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to not get married and they do.

   A Correct Rejection occurs when an event that is predicted not to occur actually does not occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to not get married and they don’t actually get married.

   Within this framework, the psychic can be correct by getting a Hit or by getting a Correct Rejection. Misses and False Alarms are considered errors.

Statistics of Interest:

2. Hit Rate (P_Hit): This is the ratio of correctly predicted events with respect to the total number of events that actually occurred. Using the table above, it is calculated as:

   Hits / (Hits + Misses)

3. Proportion False Alarms (P_FA): This is the ratio of incorrectly predicted events to the total number of events that were predicted to occur, and is calculated as:

   False Alarms / ( Hits + False Alarms )

4. Proportion Correct (P_C): This is the total proportion of hits and correct rejections to the total number of events, and is calculated as:

   (Hits + Correct Rejections) / (Hits + Misses + False Alarms + Correct Rejections)

There are some potential anomalies with psychic predictions. One anomaly could be caused by the extent to which psychics tend to self-select the events that they will predict to occur or not occur. This has a bearing on the calculation of both hits and misses, since we can only count the events that were the subject of the psychic prediction. For example, if in 2004, a psychic didn’t mention in their weather predictions for 2005 that the hurricane season would result in the most catastrophic storm in American history (Hurricane Katrina), then we cannot count this as a miss (even though any real psychic shouldn’t have missed this one). The reason for this is the psychic picked the events to predict, which limits the scope of events we can track. During analysis, this could artificially inflate the hit rate to nearly 100% since there could be virtually no misses.

In Part II of this article, I’ll be examining Sylvia Browne’s 2007 prediction data within the context of these guidelines and present the results.

Of course, I’m one that doesn’t believe the human race ever had a tail or gills too.

Although she went on to say how she wasn’t, “so closed minded that I refuse to believe there’s much more intelligent life on other planets or even at deeper levels of Earth”, I never really doubted her open mindedness. Instead, it’s her critical thinking that is atrophied. On the one hand, I’m glad she agrees with every evolutionary biologist about the fact that during evolution, the human race never had gills or tails. Yes, the facts of evolution are such that our species evolved from other, earlier species. While you might find tails, and maybe even gills among those species if you trace our evolutionary lineage back far enough, the commenter is absolutely correct to assert that tails and gills are not characteristic of homo sapiens.

Of course, it’s most likely that her agreement with evolutionary theory is serendipitous. I think she really meant to say that she didn’t believe in evolution, but she was still open to the idea of space aliens and Mole Men.

It must be a wonderful thing, to be able to stare at something and to deny it while still retaining an unflappable certainty about things unseen. When it comes to to subjects like Evolution, or whether Sylvia Browne really has magical powers, or whether the Earth is flat, a great many people’ like our commenter, display a bias for the fantastic. I wonder where that comes from. Some people have a willingness to consider the possibility of mole men beneath their feet, while denying the fact that species evolve into new species over time. It’s the same thing that empowers someone to defend the notion that Sylvia Browne has magical superpowers while denying the fact that she’s demonstrably wrong more often than right in her predictions. Writing for Scientific American in 2002, Dr. Michael Shermer, President of The Skeptics Society and noted author of such works as Why People Believe Weird Things, reasoned that many Americans tend to place extra emphasis on information that reinforce, or confirm, their strange beliefs. Long known in psychological circles as confirmation bias, Shermer writes:

Rarely do any of us sit down before a table of facts, weigh them pro and con, and choose the most logical and rational explanation, regardless of what we previously believed. Most of us, most of the time, come to our beliefs for a variety of reasons having little to do with empirical evidence and logical reasoning. Rather, such variables as genetic predisposition, parental predilection, sibling influence, peer pressure, educational experience and life impressions all shape the personality preferences that, in conjunction with numerous social and cultural influences, lead us to our beliefs. We then sort through the body of data and select those that most confirm what we already believe, and ignore or rationalize away those that do not.

This phenomenon, called the confirmation bias, helps to explain the findings published in the National Science Foundation’s biennial report (April 2002) on the state of science understanding: 30 percent of adult Americans believe that UFOs are space vehicles from other civilizations; 60 percent believe in ESP; 40 percent think that astrology is scientific; 32 percent believe in lucky numbers; 70 percent accept magnetic therapy as scientific; and 88 percent accept alternative medicine.

Shermer goes on to the important point that scientific knowledge is not enough to keep even very smart people from believing weird things. Yup – even smart people are subject to the confirmation bias.

To counter this, we should work to improve science education in America, and emphasize the teaching of the scientific method over simple scientific facts. It’s the scientific method that involves the crucial critical thinking skills that have shriveled up so badly in my commenter above, as well as in many who defend bizarre claims. And it’s the ability to think critically, using reason and available evidence, that lets us say with a very high degree of confidence, that Evolution occurred, Sylvia Browne is as unpsychic as everyone else, and that Mole Men live only in our imaginations and nightmares.

Now, space aliens though …

No no no, says I. Skepticism is your friend, especially in a world awash with kookiness and inanity, preposterous claims, and a countless host willing to consider the unbelievable as so many Idol fans did when they thought that Sanjaya might have talent. In such a world, you can’t really function on anything more than the most primitive level without the ability to filter that noise through a critical, skeptical mind.

For those of you who don’t go to the Skeptics Society website on a regular basis, you can get a great introduction to skepticism – as well as some insight into why people (not you, of course) believe weird things from Dr. Michael Shermer, the President of the Skeptics Society in this 2005 talk.

Below is a list of predictions that famed psychic superhero Sylvia Browne made at the beginning of 2006. Let’s see how well she did.

Weather and Natural Disaster Predictions for 2006:

The weather this year will be worse than last year.

Miss. Sylvia had a 50% chance of getting this one right, but she just guessed wrong. Of course, she didn’t do any worse than professionals at the National Hurricane Center.

Hits: 0, Misses: 1, Percent Correct: 0%

Hurricanes will hit in the north east US.

Miss. The 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season was milder than expected, and no hurricanes made landfall. Even though Tropical Storm Beryl did hit the north east US, this still qualifies as a miss since she predicted that more than one hurricane would hit the northeast (which, incidentally, was the claim that the NHC made for 2006 as well.).

Hits: 0, Misses: 2, Percent Correct: 0%

Two more earthquakes in Asia.

Miss. According to the US Geological Survey there were a total of 28,828 earthquakes worldwide in 2006, many of which were undoubtedly in Asia . Since 1990, the annual average number of earthquakes worldwide is 23055.6. While the numbers appear to be increasing since the 1990s, the USGS attributes this to an increase in the number of seismic monitoring stations around the world, and a resultant increase in our ability to detect earthquakes.

Hits: 0, Misses: 3, Percent Correct: 0%

Small quakes in Washington and California.

Miss. In 2006 there were approximately 123 earthquakes in California. You might think this is a hit, until you consider that there are over 100 small quakes in California alone each year. In addition, there are roughly 9 small earthquakes per year in Washington every year since 2000.

Hits: 0, Misses: 4, Percent Correct: 0%

Floods in the midwest as usual.

Miss. There were several flood events in the midwest in 2006, but these were hardly usual. In June and September, several states recorded some of their wettest months on record. If Sylvia had predicted that, “The entire state of Kentucky would have it’s 2nd wettest September on record”, then we might have handed it to her.

Hits: 0, Misses: 5, Percent Correct: 0%

Floods in the south east in the spring.

Miss. The National Climate Data Center tracked no significant flooding events in the south east US at any time in 2006.

Hits: 0, Misses: 6, Percent Correct: 0%

Health Predictions for 2006:

There will be no pandemic with the Bird Flu. Asia will be hit with it, but the rest of the world it will be contained.

Miss. True, there is no global pandemic yet, but the potential of a pandemic seems unlikely anyway since there have been only 263 cases of Avian Influenza (H5N1) reported to the World Health Organization between 2003 and 2006. The numbers are climbing on an annual basis, and 2006 was the first year that saw confirmed cases of H5N1 infection outside of Asia. Up until 2005, when Sylvia made these predictions, ALL cases had been contained. 2006 saw that containment broken, contrary to her prediction.

Hits: 0, Misses: 7, Percent Correct: 0%

A new replacement for insulin.

Miss. In 2000, it was reported that a promising molecule was discovered that may act as an insulin replacement. Now, Sylvia may have meant a new way to take insulin. Indeed, 2006 saw the FDA approve a new inhaled insulin product called Exubera. I would give her this hit if there was not previously published information in 2005 that the FDA was planning to review Exubera in January 2006, and that one FDA Panel had already approved it in 2005.

Hits: 0, Misses: 8, Percent Correct: 0%

There will be some kind of vaccination for certain types of cancer. Stomach and colon.

Miss. There was promising news about colon cancer vaccines way back in 1999 here and here and 2001.
Predicting that there will be “some kind of vaccination for certain types of cancers” sounds impressive, until you consider that researchers have been working on cancer vaccines since at least the 20th century.

Hits: 0, Misses: 9, Percent Correct: 0%

There will be advancements in treatments for plaque in the heart valves.

Miss. I cannot find any documented reports of advancements in treatments for plaque in the heart valves. A search of the FDA site for heart valve only returns results concerning prosthetic heart valve information from 2004.

Hits: 0, Misses: 10, Percent Correct: 0%

A breakthrough in MS involving the hypothalamus gland.

Miss. A search of PubMed reveals that the hypothalamus is involved in some MS cases, and this was known as early as 1998. Interestingly, 2004 saw several reports on MS cases with hypothalamic involvement, but there were none since then.

Hits: 0, Misses: 11, Percent Correct: 0%

A vaccine that blocks the need for nicotine.

Miss. The National Drug Administration reported in October, 2000 that a nicotine vaccine was heading toward clinical trials. In 2003, Science Daily also reported on a nicotine vaccine. Interestingly, in Nov. 2005, roughly a month or so before Sylvia’s 2006 predictions came out, some bloggers were reporting about favorable results of nicotine vaccine trials.

Hits: 0, Misses: 12, Percent Correct: 0%

Celebrity Predictions for 2006:

Britney Spears will divorce. She finds her husband not what she thought he was.

Miss. While Spears and Federline indeed filed for divorce in 2006, this was widely blogged about in late 2005.

Hits: 0, Misses: 13, Percent Correct: 0%

Bruce Willis will marry a very young dark haired woman.

Miss. Bruce is still single, and was single throughout 2006.

Hits: 0, Misses: 14, Percent Correct: 0%

Angelina Jolie and Brad Pitt will marry.

Miss. Brangelina are not yet married, though it was widely reported in late 2005 that they were having an affair on the set of Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Indeed, the government of Vietnam reports that the couple cannot adopt a Vietnamese child if they remain unmarried.

Hits: 0, Misses: 15, Percent Correct: 0%

Jennifer Aniston will also marry.

Miss. Jennifer is unmarried.

Hits: 0, Misses: 16, Percent Correct: 0%

Russell Crowe will get into more trouble. He needs anger management.

Miss. Russell Crowe certainly has a history of being temperamental, but he managed to avoid anger management issues in 2006, unless you count smoking inside a no-smoking zone during a concert.

Hits: 0, Misses: 17, Percent Correct: 0%

Jennifer Lopez should be careful with her health. She will also become pregnant.

Miss. J-Lo is in great health, though it was rumored in late 2005 that she might want to have a baby. To date, she has not.

Hits: 0, Misses: 18, Percent Correct: 0%

Nicole Kidman will marry a producer and she have a baby girl.

Miss. Nicole married Country Music Star Keith Urban on June 25, 2006, and it was rumored, again in late 2005, that she might be pregnant. She was not.

Hits: 0, Misses: 19, Percent Correct: 0%

Economics Predictions for 2006:

Gold and property remain good investments.

Miss. It was widely reported in late 2005 that investors should put money into real estate as well as gold and silver. Parroting the advice of experts is not a superpower.

Hits: 0, Misses: 20, Percent Correct: 0%

The LA property bubble will not burst, not for about three or four years, and then it will just level off.

Miss. According to Wikipedia,

Unlike a stock market crash following a bubble, a real-estate “crash” is usually a slower process, because sellers just decide not to sell. Historically due to inflation, prices do not fall in nominal terms, rather they stay “flat” for a period of 3-5 years. In select markets though, housing prices have fallen in real and nominal dollars, such as Los Angeles during the early to mid 1990s. Due to low inflation in most countries, future corrections may result in a fall in both real and nominal house values.

Based on this, it doesn’t take superpowers to claim that a real-estate bubble would not “burst”.

Hits: 0, Misses: 21, Percent Correct: 0%

Interest rates will go up a bit.

Miss. Interest rates fluctuate on a daily basis, but the historical trend has been downward. Bankrate.com reports that the fed began raising interest rates in 2004 (and continued through 2005) due to a strengthening economy, but and stopped in 2006. The prediction of most professionals was that rates would rise through 2006.

Hits: 0, Misses: 22, Percent Correct: 0%

Gov. Schwarzenegger will lose popularity. He will run again because his ego will make him. He will be defeated if he runs.

Miss. Gov Schwarzenegger’s popularity started falling in 2005, and surprisingly rose in 2006 due to some well placed pandering.

Hits: 0, Misses: 23, Percent Correct: 0%

President Bush’s popularity will continue to decline. He will become embroiled in more scandals.

Hit. OK – this one is a gift, but Sylvia’s doing so poorly now, that I had to throw her a bone.

Hits: 1, Misses: 23, Percent Correct: 4.2%

Bush has some neurological problems.

Miss. Unless you count a double-digit IQ as a neurological problem. Most people don’t.

Hits: 1, Misses: 24, Percent Correct: 4.0%

The 2008 election will be between Kerry and McCain, and Kerry will win in a close vote.

Unknown. It’s not 2008 yet, though Kerry doesn’t look like he’s going to be in the race.

(Edit: The day after I posted this, Kerry announced that he would not join the 2008 presidential race. It’s possible that he’ll still “flip-flop” on this decision, just as President Bush did on his attitude about nation building. Since such flip-flopping is seen as completely endearing in John Kerry – especially among republican voters, this may be the only way that he would be able to overtake the rest of the Democratic field and defeat McCain in 2008. Yeah, right. This is most likely another miss.)

Hits: 1, Misses: 24, Percent Correct: 4.0%

There will not be a woman President in her [Sylvia's] lifetime.

Unknown. Sylvia’s still alive, and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that there would be a woman elected president in 2008. Of course, it’s possible that Sylvia is predicting her own demise prior to the 2008 election.

Hits: 1, Misses: 24, Percent Correct: 4.0%

By the end of 2006 troops will begin returning from Iraq.

Miss. Troop levels were reduced from 160,000 to 138,000 in early 2006, though the president wants to “surge” troop levels back up.

Hits: 1, Misses: 25, Percent Correct: 3.8%

Trains and trucks continue to concern her as far as safety and terrorism.

Unknown. This isn’t really a prediction.

Hits: 1, Misses: 25, Percent Correct: 3.8%

A caller asked about a serial rapist in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Sylvia said his first name was Benand his second was Halle or Hally. He works as a line painter on the roads. That’s why he can get around so much. He will be caught within the next month or two.

Miss. Miss. Hit. There was a serial rapist in Tulsa from around 2003 until 2006, and a suspect was arrested within 2 months after Sylvia’s prediction (hit). His name was Gary Graham (not Bernard Hally) (miss), and he worked as a security guard (miss). As far as I know, he is still awaiting trial.

Again this hit is a gift – the Tulsa police credit their suspects arrest to, “a massive team effort, volunteers who canvassed the city with flyers, officers who questioned hundreds of people, detectives who culled through thousands of tips, lab scientists who worked overtime and a task force that gave up time with their own families to help protect ours”.

Hits: 2, Misses: 27, Percent Correct: 6.9%

Nothing will happen over Iran, it’s all a lot of talk.

Miss. In January, 2006 Iran broke the IAEA seals on it’s nuclear reactor and began enriching uranium. The IAEA brought Iran before the UN Security council, which voted in December to impose sanctions.

Hits: 2, Misses: 28, Percent Correct: 6.67%

North Korea and China is more concerning, but not anytime soon.

Unknown. This is not a prediction, although North Korea did test a nuclear device, which would make this a miss.

Hits: 2, Misses: 28, Percent Correct: 6.67%

The US will not move into Syria.

Hit. The US did not invade Syria.

Hits: 3, Misses: 28, Percent Correct: 9.7%

She feels the terrorists will hit European countries other than the US.

Miss. There was a major terrorist plot in London in August 2006 that was foiled (the targets were jetliners bound for the US). In addition, the US State Department announced that, “The September 2006 attack on the U.S. Embassy in Syria and the March 2006 bombing near the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, illustrate the continuing desire of extremists to strike American targets.”

Hits: 3, Misses: 29, Percent Correct: 9.4%

Analysis:

Here we see 32 testable predictions for 2006, of which which Sylvia Browne got 3 correct, for a raw percentage of 9.4% correct (3 out of 32). Notice, however, calculating her accuracy isn’t this simple. We also need to consider the positive and negative predictions she made, and determine if the events that were predicted to occur (or to NOT occur) did or did not occur.

In addition, we need to consider the situations in which events occurred that Sylvia did not predict. Of the 32 predictions, 30 of them were positive predictions, meaning that she predicted something would happen, and the remaining 2 predictions were negative, meaning that she predicted that something would not happen (the US would Not invade Syria, for example). If you examine each of the 30 positive predictions, you will see that, in 29 of those cases, something other than what Sylvia predicted occurred. So. to really examine her superpower, we have to look at her positive and negative predictions against their respective positive and negative outcomes.

To do this, we break the data out into a 2X2 contingency table:

Using the Key below, we can calculate some verification statistics:

(a+d)/n Percent Correct (PC) = 4.9%

This one is very simple – what percentage of positively predicted events actually occurred and predicted non-events that actually didn’t occur. Here’s Sylvia’s batting roughly one in twenty.

a/(a+c) Hit rate = true positive fraction = sensitivity = 3.3%

As a superhero, Sylvia Browne’s psychic sensitivity actually limps in at an impotent 3.3%. This number represents the percent of times that she positively predicted an event that actually occurred.

b/(b+d) False alarm rate = 1- specificity = 96.7%

The false alarm rate represents the percentage of phony predictions. This has the same meaning as a false alarm in the real world – someone who trips a false fire alarm is claiming there’s an emergency when one doesn’t actually exist. For Sylvia Browne’s 2006 predictions, the term false alarm should stick in your mind.

Key:

Update and Corrections:

One perceptive reader was kind enough to check my math and point out some errors that I made above. The main error was that I doubled up the number of predictions so the total N was 61. This should have been 32. Also, some of the calculations are incorrect. Below is what I think is the correct picture:

Sylvia Browne’s 2006 Predictions Analysis

Notes:

This analysis was conducted using the data I referenced above and a signal detection calculator found here, which includes a correction for extreme values of hits and false alarms (0 or 1.0).

The adjusted P(Hit) value of .5 (that’s 50%) hits is artificially high due to the very small number (1) of events that were both predicted and actually occurred. Note that over 90% of the time in this set of predictions, Sylvia predicted something that did not actually come to pass – which is reflected in the high false alarm rate.

As stated before, the term false alarm should stick in your mind when considering Sylvia Browne’s predictions.

Does anyone happen to know if there is a website anywhere that documents her [Self-Proclaimed Psychic, Sylvia Browne's] hits and misses? I’d love to see what type of an average she gets (I suspect random guessing produces a higher average IMHO). I tried googling it, but I didn’t come up with anything.

I found this one

While it doen’t guage her hits or misses, it was collected in December, 2004 – which let’s us examine some of the predictions. My comments are bolded below:

Here are Sylvia’s predictions for 2005. She was talking with George Noory.

She says the death count after the tsunami in South East Asia will hit 417,000. Miss – the death toll rose above 283,100

We will see more and more of these kind of disasters as we are in the end times. We only have 80 more years left to live. Then Mercury or Venus will swing into place and life will start all over again. We could be hit by a meteor and killed off just like the dinosaurs. N/A : Oh man – that’s still pretty kooky

We will see more visitations from aliens because they colonised us in the first place and they are coming back asking the question ‘what did we do here?’. N/A – more kookiness

Osama Bin Laden is dead. She thinks someone is speaking for him. We will find out this year. Miss – OBL is confirmed to have released an audio tape in January, 2006

Saddam Hussein will be dead before his trial. Miss – SH is very much alive – but some of his lawyers aren’t.

Scott Peterson will not survive in prison. N/A – this prediction was made after the fact that the jury recommended death on Dec. 14, 2004 – even so, with only life in prison, or death as the likely outcome, claiming that he would not survive prison didn’t take any psychic powers.

Economy will rebound at the beginning of the year then it will go slow and then in the middle of the year it will really rebound. Miss – the US economy was relatively strong up until August and September 2005 when hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the gulf coast. Economic conditions are just now stabilizing as rebuilding continues.

Real estate is a good investment. N/A: Real estate is almost always a good investment

Unemployment figures will drop. Hit – unemployment dropped as predicted

Technology in the medical field will be a big thing. Such things as diabetes and cancer. There will be a vaccination that will help colon and cervical cancers. Hit- though CBS News reported in Nov 2004 that a cervical cancer vaccine was promising:

The FDA will have a (to?) clean out. Miss – the FDA is alive and well

Stem cell research should be using umbilical chords and skin for its research instead of embryos. N/a – not a prediction

We will never see human cloning. N/A – so far, so good – have to wait till the end of time – or until there are human clones to see if this is correct

Medical surgery will start to use some kind of laser.
Lasers have been used in medical surgery for years. Uh, miss. Though she also predicts that Doctors will begin to use little devices to listen to their patient’s heart beats

Anti-Gravitational rods helped move the stone blocks to build the pyramids. OK – more kooky

We will see all kinds of weather changes because of the polar tilt. Hit. I stand in awe of the supernatural forces that allow her to claim that “THE WEATHER IS GOING TO CHANGE” while maintaining a straight face

This year the US will be hit hard again by tornados. North Carolina will be hit. Florida will be pelted yet again. The east gets milder and the south gets colder. It will be a mild winter. Hit – though there are tornados every year, during, um … TORNADO SEASON

The US troops will not be home from Iraq until 2006.
Another changed prediction. Previously she has predicted US troops would be home by June/July 2004. Then she changed it to the end of 2004. One day if she keeps on guessing she will eventually get it right, and of course she will forever keep reminding us she got it right too. Too early to tell, but my magic 8 ball says 2006 doesn’t look like a good year for troop withdrawls from Iraq.

North Korea is a big worry. They have all kinds of weapons and they are being too quiet. Anything could trigger North Korea into action. N/A – not really a prediction. Although, you have to admit, the woman knows kooky

The Illuminati is real. I’m now pounding my head against my keyboard: sdafsddfsfsd.

The US anthrax attacks in 2001 was a domestic issue and made in New Jersey. Hit. Although, everyone knows that Trenton Makes, and the World Takes

Some minor terrorist attacks on the trucks and trains not airplanes. This will hit our food supply. Swing batter batter batter

Laser beams affecting the cockpits of aircraft are coming from other planes or satelites.
Wrong. NEWARK, New Jersey (CNN) — A New Jersey man was released on $100,000 bail Tuesday 4th January after federal authorities accused him of pointing a laser beam at two aircraft last week. To read the full story from CNN click: Here.

Nothing will happen over the Ohio election tampering. Hit. She’s, like, magic

Donald Trump’s third marriage will only last for two years. Too early to tell

Catherine Zeta Jones and Michael Douglas are in trouble. Miss. They’re still married. Even though hollywood couples don’t tend to last long, and the American divorce rate is still around 50%, I’m betting this one will overcome the odds, and the 26-year age difference.

Demi Moore and Ashton Kutcher will get married and have a baby. Hit. Demi and Ashton were only dating at the time, though their wedding plans were widely rumored.

Elizabeth Taylor’s health is a worry. She seems like she has given up her fight for life. 2005 will be a bad year for her. Hit – though at the time, ET was 73 – bedridden with Parkinson’s disease and recently hospitalized for a heart condition. My cat made the same prediction in 2003.

Jennifer Lopez’s marriage will hit the rocks. Jo Lo doesn’t know what she wants to do. Miss – 2005 came and went and JLo is still married

Britney Spears will become pregnant and her marriage will break up within a year.
12th April Britney announced she was expecting a baby. No psychic ability needed to predict this one as for months now Britney has been telling everyone how she can’t wait to have kids.

Goldie Hawn and Kurt Russell will finally call it quits. Miss – Goldie and Kurt are still married, and (EEW) apparently enjoying it

Mount St Helens will blow this year or within 18 months. N/A – wait till June 2006 to see how this plays out

Arnold Schwarzenegger will run for President in the future after they change the law. N/A – though theyare us – and we haven’t changed that particular law yet

Man will go to Mars in the future. There was life on Mars and we will find fossils once we get there. Hit – see Red Planet for proof

She did not see the tsumani coming, but now she says she told Montells viewers not to go to India.

There will be no NHL this season.

She claims she predicted that Red Sox would win the World Series.

She admits she said on Coast that John Kerry would win the election and that on Montell she said Bush would win.

She claims an 87% success rate but she would like to be 95%.

The Shroud of Turin isn’t Christ but it is real and Da Vinci had something to do with it.

Jesus was real and had God given powers. He will not return but we will have the Age of the Messiah.

There is no Devil but there is an Hell and we are living in it.

The Mayan Calendar used to end in 2002 and they changed it to 2012. It ends because they got bored of writing it.

The United Nations will not last.

In the year 2030 the US will not have a Presidency.

No major earthquakes in the near future for central California.

There will be another election in the Ukraine. A third one.

There will be no US draft.

A lot of terrorists will be found in Syria.

In the next two years we will find that the rogue nations will start to calm down and become more agreeable.

Oil will never run dry. The US should start to use its own resources such as in Alaska.

The war in Iraq will carry on for another year.

Eventually we will be told the truth about UFO’s. Probably in the next five years.

The Winter Olympcs in 2010 will be safe and very successful.

She also missed, um, the complete destruction of New Orleans – as well as the lobbed ball prediction she could have made following the 2004 hurricane season that there might be some troubling wind-driven rain events in 2005.

Also missed:
Major Terrorist Attacks in London and Bali
Major Earthquakes in Indonesia and Afghanistan
The Death of Pope John Paul II
The Michael Jackson Trial
The Robert Blake Trial
The death of Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist
The resignation of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Conner