Last year we took a look at the 2006 predictions of self-described psychic, Sylvia Browne. We had to wait until the 2007 in order to be able to make a fair judgment of her psychic predictions for 2006. Since it’s now 2008, let’s go back and track how well Sylvia Brown’s predictions for 2007 hold up against the facts. As you’ll see, this year Sylvia is very consistent with last year, though that’s not necessarily a good thing for her credibility, or her claimed psychic ability.

As I mentioned earlier, I’ll be using the following criteria to analyze her predictions:

1. We’ll only score predictions that are “specific enough” to score.
2. We’ll distinguish positive from negative predictions
3. We’ll only count predictions for which we’re pretty certain there was no documented foreknowledge.
4. We will split compound predictions into individual predictions.
5. We will disallow predictions of common or regularly occurring events
6. We will not score predictions that cannot yet be validated (for example, if Sylvia predicts something for 2009 or later).

As for scoring, we’ll simply assign each prediction that can be scored into one of 4 possible categories:

Event Occurred Event Did Not Occur
Event Predicted To Occur Hit False Alarm
Event Predicted To Not Occur Miss Correct Rejection

A Hit occurs when a positively predicted event actually occurs. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to get married and they do.

A False Alarm occurs when a predicted event does not occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to get married and they don’t actually get married. (This is similar to “crying wolf”).

A Miss occurs when an event that is predicted not to occur actually does occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to not get married and they do.

A Correct Rejection occurs when an event that is predicted not to occur actually does not occur. For example, if celebrity X is predicted to not get married and they don’t actually get married.

Within this framework, the psychic can be correct by getting a Hit or by getting a Correct Rejection. Misses and False Alarms are considered errors.

We will list the category each prediction below falls into, and we will provide a description of why we scored it this way. At the end, we will tally up the results.

Prediction Sources:

We’ve compiled the list of predictions below from the following sources:
1. http://www.mothering.com/discussions/showthread.php?t=583405
2. http://thirtysecondstomars.emiforums.com/index.php?showtopic=303681
3. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJkNljY7nSM
4. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqdJNrkUv8c&feature=related

Scoring The Predictions:

TomKat will have a baby boy, stay together for 2 more years, and divorce. He will move on to some other chick, Sylvia doesnt like him because she had PPD.

This is actually 4 predictions – 1) they will have a baby boy, 2) they will stay together for 2 more years, 3) they will then divorce, and 4) Tom will move on to some other chick. Since we’re only interested in the predictions for 2007, the “2 more years” prediction cannot be confirmed until the end of 2008. Also, since the “divorce” prediction is dependant on the “2 more years prediction” (meaning, you don’t stay together after divorcing), we’re down to 2 predictions for 2007.

Prediction 1) they will have a baby boy. False Alarm. – TomKat didn’t have a baby boy in 2007

Prediction 4) Tom will move on to some other chick. False Alarm. Tom did not move on to some other chick.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 0/0/2/0

Brad and Angelina wont make it either, they will split. She thinks Angelina is pretty ridiculous for saying she wanted to sit down with Jen, as if any woman would want to talk to the woman who ran off with their husband.

False Alarm: As of 1/1/2008 – Brad and Angelina have made it just fine.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 0/0/3/0

Marc Anthony and J Lo will never have a baby and will break up. J Lo cant have a baby apparently, for some reason, physically or else she just doesn’t really want one.

This is another set of 3 predictions – 1) Mark Anthony and J Lo will never have a baby, 2) they will break up, 3) and that J Lo either cannot or will not have a child.

Prediction 1) Mark Anthony and J Lo will never have a baby (for 2007). While Sylvia predicted they will never have a baby, we can give her a hit for correctly predicting that the couple would not have a baby in 2007.

Prediction 2) they will break up (in 2007). False Alarm since Marc Anthony and J Lo didn’t break up in 2007.

Prediction 3) that J Lo either cannot have a child. False Alarm: It’s very apparent that J Lo is both capable of becoming pregnant and intends to have their first baby sometime in 2008.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/5/0

Nicole Richie will end up in the hospital for so much self abuse.

N/A due to reasonable foreknowledge. People magazine reported
that Nicole was hospitalized briefly in March, 2007 for dehydration. While it remains possible that psychic powers provided Sylvia insight into this prediction, it’s more likely that she read this October 2006 People Magazine article which provided reasonable foreknowledge of an upcoming hospitalization:

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/5/0

Martha Stewart’s show will be canceled.

False Alarm: Just plain wrong on this one.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/6/0

Mel Gibson will just kind of go away.

False Alarm. Sylvia predicted that Mel wouldn’t do much following Apocolypto. Interestingly, Mel’s fall from grace was well documented in 2006 as was his declaration that he was quitting his acting career, so her guess that he wouldn’t do much was understandable. And while predicting the past isn’t evidence of a superpower, Sylvia misses here simply on account respectable amount of philanthropic work Mel did through 2007 (here and here).

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/7/0

Tom Hanks will win some Excellence Award.

False Alarm: This is about as vague as you can get with a prediction, but Sylvia still managed to miss this one. In this case, it’s rather simple to check IMDB.com to see what awards Tom Hanks was up for in 2007. Turns out he was nominated for a people’s choice award for Favorite Male Movie Star, but he lost to Johnny Depp.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/8/0

Liz Taylor is dying, her *life force* is flickering, she is giving up.

N/A – this is not specific enough to score.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/8/0

Jen Aniston will marry a producer/director type.

False Alarm: Jen Aniston is still single.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/9/0

Some rapper is going to blow up, but I don’t remember his name.

N/A. This is too vague to be counted one way or the other.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/9/0

8 years and we will have a black president.

N/A. Again – there’s no way to validate this until after 8 years have passed.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/9/0

Polio and Whooping cough are making big comebacks because of crazy people who think vaccines are not good for you and contribute to autism.

There are 2 predictions here: 1) That Polio is making a big comeback in 2007 and that 2) Whooping Cough would make a similar “big comeback” in 2007. In both cases, Sylvia raises more false alarms.

Prediction 1) That Polio is making a big comeback in 2007. False Alarm: It turns out that, while not completely eradicated, there were only 857 cases of Polio around the world in 2007 (down from over 300,000 in 1988 when eradication efforts began).

Prediction 2) Whooping Cough would make a similar “big comeback” in 2007. False Alarm: While there have been small outbreaks of whooping cough, the number of cases in 2007 was lower than the number in 2006. In neither the case of polio nor the case of Whooping Cough, can we credit Sylvia with correctly predicting a “big comeback”.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/11/0

Bush will bring the troops home.

False Alarm. Bush sent more troops into Iraq as part of his “surge” strategy.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/12/0

More states will approve gay marriage, not just civil unions.

False Alarm. No states approved same sex marriages in 2007. One bill was passed the New York assembly, but was not voted on. Also, between August 30 and 31, about 20 gay couples were married in Iowa during the brief time in which a judge there ruled the state law forbidding same-sex marriages was unconstitutional. On the day after issuing the ruling, the same judge overturned himself and the law was reinstated.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/13/0

FEMA will be investigated, people will go to jail for stealing.

This is actually two predictions: 1) FEMA will be investigated, and 2) FEMA employees will be jailed for theft.

Prediction 1) On FEMA investigations in 2007. N/A due to foreknowledge. It turns out that it was widely announced in late 2006 that FEMA would be the target of several investigations during the upcoming year, just as it was announced in 2007 that there would be additional investigations in FY 2008.

Prediction 2) On FEMA employees being jailed for theft. False Alarm: Thus far, we have not uncovered any news reports of FEMA officials being jailed for any reason in 2007. We’ll count this as a false alarm for now, unless someone can send us a credible report of one occurring.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/14/0

Major drug bust in Eastern port in June, then another big one on west coast.

N/A: This is not specific enough to test. This sounds like a relatively specific event, but it isn’t. A Google search containing the terms, “June 2007 major drug busts Eastern US” turn up over 237,000 different items. Of these, we can take our pick of the major busts in Eastern ports, since there were several in NJ, VA, FL, and NY. The same issue applies for the West Coast. Predicting something that occurs on a regular basis is not really a prediction. Even so, we won’t count this against her.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/14/0

Bomb parts will come in through the ports too, but NO major terrorist attacks here, although she is worried about England and France.

Again – multiple vague predictions.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/14/0

Economy will bounce back, although stock market is a real rollercoaster.

False Alarm: The US economy didn’t “bounce back” in 2007. With soaring oil prices, the mortgage crisis, and a weak dollar, the consensus is that a sharp slowdown has begun in the economy, and even though there is evidence of economic resilience, there are plenty of economists who are using the other R word: recession.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/15/0

Property is the best investment now, buy now, because its going down but will go back up next year

False Alarm. Two words: Mortgage Crisis.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/16/0

New drugs for HIV, AIDS, Hep C that really help patients

Once again – there are several predictions here:

Prediction 1) New Drugs for HIV AIDS patients? N/A. I thought this might be a hit, since the FDA approved Raltegravir in October, 2007. It was widely known, however, that Merck Pharmaceutical was awarded a patent for this class of drug in October, 1996, and the studies that were used to support FDA approval were published in 2003. Since there was foreknowledge available when Sylvia made this prediction, the best we can say is this is a push.

Prediction 2) Was a new Drug for Hep C patients announced in 2007? False Alarm: A Google news search for “hepatitis C drug approval” returned only 220 results, and none of these appeared to be announcements of new drug approvals for Hep C in 2007.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/17/0

East coast will have one of the mildest winters you have seen (this current winter).

False Alarm: Even though the NOAA predicted a mild winter on Nov 16, 2006, it turns out that the overall temperature for winter 2007 was about average. It turns out that December and the first half of January were indeed very mild, but then there were some bone-chilling cold days in the East as winter storms moved in.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 1/0/18/0

West Coast will still be cold/rainy like it is now.

Hit: Winter 2007 was cold and rainy for much of the west (same link above).

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Depression will be linked to diet.

N/A due to foreknowledge. Depression was first linked to diet at least 2000 years ago by the Roman physician Galen, who theorized that the foods we ate affected the balance of “animal spirits” in the brain and caused mania or melancholia. Predicting what’s been known for thousands of years really a prediction.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Processing is causing a lot of illnesses?

N/A due to lack of specificity. I won’t even pretend to know what this means.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

There will be an amino acid found that will put HIV into remission

How cool is this? There was news that amino acid supplements could help put HIV into remission. Of course, this was back in 1999. N/A due to foreknowledge.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Some glaciers will be breaking up at rapid speed,

N/A due to foreknowledge: this has been widely reported since 1998.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

We are in a “polar tilt”

N/A due to lack of specificity.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Tornados in odd places, texas, arkansas, all over,

N/A: predicting common events. Texas and Arkansas are not really odd places for tornado activity. These two states are part of what’s commonly called “Tornado Alley”.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

More volcanoes everywhere erupting, Hawaii.

N/A: predicting common events. Hawaii’s Kilauea has been erupting continuously since 1983. In addition, there are many volcanic eruptions every year around the world.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/18/0

Flooding in the south.

False Alarm: This is a pretty safe prediction, but Sylvia still managed to raise a false alarm for 2007 instead. The real southern story was one of catastrophic drought, not flooding.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/19/0

earthquakes and tsunamis.

N/A: Not specific enough to analyze.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/19/0

Some crops will fail because of drought at end of the year and you wont even be able to afford corn and other produce.

Again – 2 different – though related - predictions: 1) Crop failures due to drought at the end of 2007, and 2) “you won’t be able to afford corn and other produce” because of the drought.

Prediction 1) Crop failures due to drought at the end of 2007. False Alarm: A Google news search of “2007 USA “Crop Failure” returns only 27 results, of which none are related to significant late season, drought-induced crop failures.

Prediction 2) “you won’t be able to afford corn and other produce” because of the drought. False Alarm: While produce prices have risen, people are still able to afford produce. In addition, the main cause for increased produce prices is not a drought, but rather the increase in energy prices which drive up the cost to farm, process, store, and transport produce.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/21/0

Really hard winter next year.

N/A: Not specific enough to analyze, and we’ll have to wait and see anyway.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/21/0

More spirituality next year, bad press for Evangelicals, they are misusing $, buying lots of things for themselves

N/A: Not specific enough to analyze.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/21/0

Tsunami in New York, she has been worried about this for years, and its coming.

False Alarm: There was no Tsunami in New York in 2007.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Cure for insulin dependent diabetes end of next year, major breakthroughs happening

N/A – We’ll have to wait until 2009 to see.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Democrat in office next time

N/A – Not specific enough, and we’ll have to wait anyway.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Worried about trucks and trains for terrorism worldwide, not planes

N/A – Not specific enough to analyze.

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Find missing amino in autism kids that can be reversed

N/A – Reasonable Foreknowledge. Researchers have been looking at the links between amino acid imbalances and autism since the 1980’s (also here).

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/22/0

Gas prices will go down in feb

False Alarm: On 1/22/2008 The AAA displayed this graph of national average gas prices for the previous 12 months. Note the uniform average increase in gas prices during Feb 2007:

National Average for Regular Unleaded

( Source: here )

Hits/Misses/False Alarms/Correct Rejections : 2/0/23/0

Statistical Analysis:

Hit Rate = Hits/(Hits + Misses) = 2/(2+0) = 2/2 = 100%
False Alarm Rate = False Alarms / (Hits + False Alarms) = 23/(2+23) = 23/25 = 92%

Discussion:

Sylvia Browne’s thicker brow-ridged supporters might be encouraged by the 100% hit rate statistic, but the smarter ones will realize that’s actually an artifact of having such a few number of accurate predictions coupled with self-selecting the events she predicted. If you give yourself a list of things to predict, then there’s no way you can get more than zero misses (or less than 100% hits, even if you hit something by chance). In 2006, Sylvia actually failed to predict every major story of 2007: The Virginia Tech massacre, the mortgage crisis, the surge in Iraq, Barry Bonds, Brittany Spears’ meltdown, OJ’s rearrest, etc. (See more stuff Sylvia Browne never predicted). Even though she declined to predict what turned out to be the most important events of 2007, none of these can actually be counted as misses, since she never said anything about them. We can only count a miss if Sylvia predicts something isn’t going to happen, and it actually does. For example – if she predicted that there would not be a massacre at Virginia Tech in 2007, and there was, then we could count that as a miss. Since Sylvia picks the events that she’ll make predictions about, then there is virtually no chance that she’ll ever miss a prediction, and any hits she gets will lead to a 100% hit rate.

In addition to the very small number of actual hits (2 of 25 predicted events), there is a reasonably large number of “predictions” that had to be rejected due to vagueness, potential foreknowledge, or were predictions of common events (like volcanic activity in Hawaii) or future events that cannot yet be validated (in 8 years we’ll have a black president). I counted 23 non-predictions that had to be rejected from this set. While these didn’t count for her or against her, but I find it interesting that nearly half of the items she “predicts” are not measurable in any way.

Finally, and most telling is the 92% False Alarm rate – which dominates the predictions that she made for 2007 as it did for her 2006 predictions. False alarms are akin to crying wolf – she predicts that there will be a Tsunami in New York, or that Gas Prices will fall in February, and none of these events come to pass. Out of 25 predictions that she made for 2007, 23 of them were false alarms. This is very close to the 93.5% false alarm rate that Sylvia ran last year, so at least she’s consistent.

Consistently crying wolf.

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